Qelly Qelly
Live Index World Cup head-to-head

World Cup 2026 tracking portfolios

Model vs. market, head to head

Two company-funded $100 paper portfolios decide every World Cup match at live Polymarket prices with the identical fractional-Kelly risk policy. The only difference is the probability source: one follows the cross-book betting-market consensus, the other follows Qelly's Elo-based match model. Same matches, same prices, same sizing — whichever curve ends higher on July 19 tells you whose probabilities were better. No user funds, no real orders.

WC26 — Market Consensus

consensus

The Odds API cross-book consensus

Equity
$98.00
of $100.00
Return
-2.00%
Record
5–23
2 open · 0 passed
At risk: $0.38 30 decisions

WC26 — Qelly Engine

model

Elo → Poisson + Dixon-Coles model

Equity
$87.30
of $100.00
Return
-12.70%
Record
8–17
2 open · 0 passed
At risk: $1.42 27 decisions

Equity evolution

Both curves, one race

Market consensus Qelly engine
$113.86 $100 $77.70
Jun 11 17:59 Jun 20 17:37

A point lands on each curve every two hours, plus the moment any position settles. Dashed line = the $100 starting line.

Match coverage

The next 48 hours

Every scheduled match and where the engine stands on it. Polymarket does not list a market for every fixture — uncovered matches are shown, not hidden.

Jun 19 19:00 United States vs Australia Group D
verdicts in
Jun 19 22:00 Scotland vs Morocco Group C
verdicts in
Jun 20 01:00 Brazil vs Haiti Group C
verdicts in
Jun 20 04:00 Tunisia vs Japan Group F
verdicts in
Jun 20 17:00 Netherlands vs Sweden Group F
verdicts in
Jun 20 20:00 Germany vs Ivory Coast Group E
deciding now
Jun 21 00:00 Ecuador vs Curacao Group E
window opens T−4h
Jun 21 16:00 Spain vs Saudi Arabia Group H
window opens T−4h
Jun 21 19:00 Belgium vs Iran Group G
window opens T−4h
Jun 21 22:00 Uruguay vs Cape Verde Group H
window opens T−4h
Jun 22 01:00 New Zealand vs Egypt Group G
window opens T−4h
Jun 22 17:00 Argentina vs Austria Group J
window opens T−4h

Decision feed

Every match, both verdicts

Decisions appear when a fixture enters the 24-hour window and a Polymarket match market exists. "Passed" means the portfolio found no positive edge at its final pre-kickoff check — passing is a decision too.

Netherlands vs Sweden — Group F

Jun 20, 13:00 UTC
Market consensus open
Sweden win @ 0.20
P 20.2% edge +0.7 pts stake $0.21
Qelly engine open
Netherlands win @ 0.57
P 58.9% edge +2.4 pts stake $1.36

Tunisia vs Japan — Group F

Jun 20, 00:00 UTC
Market consensus open
Tunisia win @ 0.14
P 14.1% edge +0.6 pts stake $0.17
Qelly engine open
Tunisia win @ 0.14
P 13.7% edge +0.2 pts stake $0.06

Brazil vs Haiti — Group C

Jun 19, 21:00 UTC
Market consensus lost
Draw @ 0.08
P 8.9% edge +1.2 pts stake $0.31 P&L −$0.31
Qelly engine lost
Draw @ 0.08
P 18.7% edge +11.0 pts stake $2.98 P&L −$2.98

Scotland vs Morocco — Group C

Jun 19, 18:00 UTC
Market consensus lost
Scotland win @ 0.16
P 16.4% edge +0.9 pts stake $0.28 P&L −$0.28
Qelly engine lost
Scotland win @ 0.16
P 31.7% edge +16.2 pts stake $3.00 P&L −$3.00

United States vs Australia — Group D

Jun 19, 15:00 UTC
Market consensus lost
Draw @ 0.22
P 21.7% edge +0.2 pts stake $0.07 P&L −$0.07
Qelly engine lost
Australia win @ 0.19
P 34.7% edge +16.2 pts stake $3.00 P&L −$3.00

Turkiye vs Paraguay — Group D

Jun 19, 00:00 UTC
Market consensus lost
Draw @ 0.29
P 28.5% edge +0.0 pts stake $0.01 P&L −$0.01
Qelly engine won
Paraguay win @ 0.25
P 28.9% edge +4.4 pts stake $1.46 P&L +$4.50

Canada vs Qatar — Group B

Jun 18, 18:00 UTC
Market consensus lost
Qatar win @ 0.09
P 9.1% edge +0.6 pts stake $0.15 P&L −$0.15
Qelly engine won
Canada win @ 0.75
P 76.3% edge +1.8 pts stake $1.74 P&L +$0.60

Switzerland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina — Group B

Jun 18, 15:00 UTC
Market consensus lost
Bosnia and Herzegovina win @ 0.15
P 15.7% edge +1.2 pts stake $0.34 P&L −$0.34
Qelly engine won
Switzerland win @ 0.63
P 64.7% edge +2.2 pts stake $1.44 P&L +$0.86

Czechia vs South Africa — Group A

Jun 18, 12:00 UTC
Market consensus won
Draw @ 0.27
P 27.0% edge +0.5 pts stake $0.18 P&L +$0.50
Qelly engine lost
Czechia win @ 0.53
P 57.6% edge +5.1 pts stake $2.68 P&L −$2.68

Uzbekistan vs Colombia — Group K

Jun 17, 22:00 UTC
Market consensus lost
Uzbekistan win @ 0.10
P 10.3% edge +0.8 pts stake $0.23 P&L −$0.23
Qelly engine lost
Uzbekistan win @ 0.10
P 14.3% edge +4.8 pts stake $1.33 P&L −$1.33

Ghana vs Panama — Group L

Jun 17, 19:00 UTC
Market consensus lost
Draw @ 0.30
P 30.0% edge +0.5 pts stake $0.17 P&L −$0.17
Qelly engine — no verdict yet

England vs Croatia — Group L

Jun 17, 16:00 UTC
Market consensus lost
Croatia win @ 0.18
P 18.2% edge +0.7 pts stake $0.20 P&L −$0.20
Qelly engine — no verdict yet

Portugal vs DR Congo — Group K

Jun 17, 13:00 UTC
Market consensus won
Draw @ 0.17
P 17.2% edge +0.7 pts stake $0.21 P&L +$1.06
Qelly engine — no verdict yet

Argentina vs Algeria — Group J

Jun 16, 21:00 UTC
Market consensus lost
Draw @ 0.21
P 21.0% edge +0.5 pts stake $0.15 P&L −$0.15
Qelly engine won
Argentina win @ 0.69
P 69.1% edge +0.6 pts stake $0.44 P&L +$0.20

Iraq vs Norway — Group I

Jun 16, 18:00 UTC
Market consensus lost
Draw @ 0.14
P 14.1% edge +0.6 pts stake $0.17 P&L −$0.17
Qelly engine lost
Draw @ 0.14
P 22.4% edge +8.9 pts stake $2.56 P&L −$2.56

France vs Senegal — Group I

Jun 16, 15:00 UTC
Market consensus lost
Senegal win @ 0.13
P 13.6% edge +1.1 pts stake $0.30 P&L −$0.30
Qelly engine lost
Senegal win @ 0.13
P 18.8% edge +6.3 pts stake $1.80 P&L −$1.80

Austria vs Jordan — Group J

Jun 16, 00:00 UTC
Market consensus lost
Jordan win @ 0.11
P 11.3% edge +0.8 pts stake $0.23 P&L −$0.23
Qelly engine lost
Jordan win @ 0.11
P 22.8% edge +12.3 pts stake $3.00 P&L −$3.00

Iran vs New Zealand — Group G

Jun 15, 21:00 UTC
Market consensus lost
New Zealand win @ 0.19
P 18.9% edge +0.4 pts stake $0.14 P&L −$0.14
Qelly engine lost
Iran win @ 0.55
P 56.3% edge +1.8 pts stake $1.00 P&L −$1.00

Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay — Group H

Jun 15, 18:00 UTC
Market consensus won
Draw @ 0.22
P 21.7% edge +0.2 pts stake $0.08 P&L +$0.29
Qelly engine won
Draw @ 0.22
P 22.0% edge +0.6 pts stake $0.17 P&L +$0.62

Belgium vs Egypt — Group G

Jun 15, 15:00 UTC
Market consensus lost
Egypt win @ 0.16
P 16.0% edge +0.5 pts stake $0.14 P&L −$0.14
Qelly engine lost
Egypt win @ 0.16
P 19.2% edge +3.7 pts stake $1.08 P&L −$1.08

Sweden vs Tunisia — Group F

Jun 14, 22:00 UTC
Market consensus lost
Tunisia win @ 0.21
P 21.4% edge +0.9 pts stake $0.28 P&L −$0.28
Qelly engine lost
Tunisia win @ 0.21
P 28.3% edge +7.8 pts stake $2.45 P&L −$2.45

Netherlands vs Japan — Group F

Jun 14, 16:00 UTC
Market consensus lost
Japan win @ 0.26
P 26.0% edge +0.5 pts stake $0.16 P&L −$0.16
Qelly engine lost
Japan win @ 0.26
P 32.0% edge +6.5 pts stake $2.18 P&L −$2.18

Germany vs Curacao — Group E

Jun 14, 13:00 UTC
Market consensus lost
Draw @ 0.04
P 5.3% edge +1.2 pts stake $0.30 P&L −$0.30
Qelly engine lost
Draw @ 0.04
P 18.7% edge +14.6 pts stake $3.00 P&L −$3.00

Haiti vs Scotland — Group C

Jun 13, 21:00 UTC
Market consensus lost
Haiti win @ 0.16
P 16.4% edge +0.9 pts stake $0.25 P&L −$0.25
Qelly engine lost
Draw @ 0.21
P 24.7% edge +4.2 pts stake $1.33 P&L −$1.33

Brazil vs Morocco — Group C

Jun 13, 18:00 UTC
Market consensus lost
Morocco win @ 0.17
P 17.1% edge +0.6 pts stake $0.18 P&L −$0.18
Qelly engine lost
Morocco win @ 0.17
P 21.7% edge +5.2 pts stake $1.56 P&L −$1.56

Qatar vs Switzerland — Group B

Jun 13, 15:00 UTC
Market consensus lost
Qatar win @ 0.06
P 6.9% edge +0.9 pts stake $0.24 P&L −$0.24
Qelly engine won
Draw @ 0.14
P 18.7% edge +5.2 pts stake $1.51 P&L +$9.68

Australia vs Turkiye — Group D

Jun 13, 00:00 UTC
Market consensus won
Australia win @ 0.19
P 18.8% edge +0.4 pts stake $0.11 P&L +$0.48
Qelly engine won
Australia win @ 0.19
P 24.1% edge +5.6 pts stake $1.72 P&L +$7.58

Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina — Group B

Jun 12, 03:02 UTC
Market consensus won
Draw @ 0.27
P 27.2% edge +0.7 pts stake $0.23 P&L +$0.64
Qelly engine lost
Canada win @ 0.53
P 60.8% edge +8.3 pts stake $3.00 P&L −$3.00

United States vs Paraguay — Group D

Jun 12, 03:02 UTC
Market consensus lost
Paraguay win @ 0.23
P 23.1% edge +0.6 pts stake $0.19 P&L −$0.19
Qelly engine lost
Paraguay win @ 0.23
P 40.0% edge +17.5 pts stake $3.00 P&L −$3.00

Mexico vs South Africa — Group A

Jun 11, 17:59 UTC
Market consensus lost
Draw @ 0.21
P 21.4% edge +0.9 pts stake $0.29 P&L −$0.29
Qelly engine won
Mexico win @ 0.70
P 75.5% edge +6.1 pts stake $3.00 P&L +$1.32

How this works

  • Consensus side — multiplicative no-vig probabilities from The Odds API, median across books.
  • Model side — World Football Elo Ratings (eloratings.net), World.tsv (frozen 2026-06-11), Elo → expected goals → Poisson + Dixon-Coles match probabilities. Ported from our soccer research engine.
  • Both sides — entries priced at live Polymarket YES quotes in the final hours before kickoff (the engine tracks the match calendar and tightens to minutes-level checks around each game); 0.25-Kelly sizing, 3% max position, 10% max event, 5% daily-loss circuit breaker; settled against on-venue resolution within minutes of the result.

Research showcase with company funds. Not a fund, not investment advice, and not a pick feed — full definitions on /methodology.